As we start a new year, the hot topics on the Web in '96 are still with us. It's a good time to look at where we are and where we're going. Here are a few trends to watch this year:

In 1997, a significant increase in the use of credit cards over the Internet will occur, but, the big increases will only happen as confidence grows in security. Various schemes involving e-money have not had notable success. Actually, some of these companies have had multimillion dollar losses and it will only be a matter of time before the investors cut their loses. So, don't count on this to build consumer confidence any more than smart cards did at the Olympics.

In the not too distant future, the disappearance of local providers would not surprise me. The smart money says more and more small operators will turn to "hosting" only and even that will be further segmented by specialty. For example, commercial companies in a particular industry will tend to flock to affinity Hosts that attract their type of viewer. Some will set up their own servers and buy access by bandwidth. Even the latter will find it more and more important to associate themselves with the right type of Host.

The cost of setting up and maintaining your own server will continue to rise, as will the cost of being hosted by someone else.

As auditing Web site traffic becomes more commonplace in 1997, the costs of advertising will become increasingly standardized. We will see pricing for advertising become more like rates for other media. The larger and the more targeted the audience, the higher the price.

Banners will not disappear as more banner exchange programs will surface. We will see more infomercial style content and this will dominate the "free" Web sites. More contests, drawings, trial software and Cyber events will become the key to attracting an audience. Simply offering a group of search engines or a collection of URLs to Free Directories or some other topic -- I have several thousand of both on my Web site -- will not be enough to bring the viewer back time and time again.

Multimedia is the immediate wave and it will grow significantly in the near future. Growth will be slowed by the battle between technologies -- Java vs. ActiveX -- but will have a big spurt when the smoke clears and developers and Web designers settle on the preferred standard. Right now it appears that Java and Netscape have a big edge, but, don't count Microsoft and Mr. Gates out so early in the fight. There is also the possibility that the battle could change with a new technology.

More and more Web awards and seals of approval will surface on the Web. The confidence level by the viewer will diminish inversely to the growth of their numbers. Even today, I get too many E-mail messages telling me one of my Web sites has won an award for excellence, creativity, design, honesty, etc...you pick the subject... and all I have to do is add some code to my opening page. The code usually consists of an award image (touting the award giver) and a hyperlink back to the conferrers' home page. C'mon, guys...I never heard of the outfit that has decided to grace my Web pages with their advertisement...I mean "award." Besides, when I have a viewer that has found my site among the hundreds of thousands available, I am not going to encourage them to leave until they have had a chance to check out other parts of my site.

"Cookies" embedded in a browser will increasingly be used to gather information about users. With or without your consent, they can identify the parts of the Web site that interested you and how long you spent checking it out, as well as your net buying habits. Many using this technology will analyze the data and sell it to others; some will use it themselves. Expect a great deal more of this type of thing as more companies try to target their markets through demographics. New technologies are being developed that will gain even more specific information.

Eventually, the Internet will be split into several levels of service and you will get what you pay for. We already have the beginning of this with two types of access levels and pricing. This change is likely to accelerate in the years beyond 1997.

Commerce and revenue are predicted to nearly double on the Internet in 1997. But, it will still be hard to turn a buck. Just as in every other form of business, the spoils will go to the victors and there is no way to guarantee victory. Like every other form of commerce, the Web will become the province of the major players; the rest of us will survive as "boutiques," be absorbed, or quit the field.